Although several empirical wear formulas have been proposed, theoretical approaches for predicting surface topography evolution during sliding wear are limited. In this study, we propose a novel wear-prediction method, wherein the energy-based Arrhenius equation is combined with a mixed elastohydrodynamic lubrication (EHL) model to predict the point-contact wear process in mixed lubrication. The surface flash temperature and contact pressure are considered in the wear model. Simulation results are compared with the experimental results to verify the theory. The surface topography evolutions are observed during the wear process. The influences of load and speed on wear are investigated. The simulation results based on the Arrhenius equation relationship shows good agreement with the results of experiments as well as the Archard wear formula. However, the Arrhenius equation is more accurate than the Archard wear theory in some aspects, such as under high-temperature conditions. The results indicate that combining the wear formulas with the mixed EHL simulation models is an effective method to study the wear behavior over time.