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本文利用漳州市热带作物气象试验站1997~2013年龙眼花期物候观测资料,结合对应的气候资料,采用相关分析法分析开花前期温度、降水、日照等气象因子与始花时间的相关关系。结果表明:前期的平均气温、平均最低气温以及越冬期的积温与开花时间相关性较好,采用逐步回归方法,利用SPSS软件,建立了龙眼始花期预测模型,平均误差为2.2天,其中小等于3天的误差占总样本数的75%,模型拟合效果较好,预报准确率满足业务要求,可提供较为准确的始花期预报,为果农合理安排生产及对农业部门提前决策部署提供科学依据。
Based on the observation data of longan florescence from 1997 to 2013 in Zhangzhou Tropical Crop Weather Station, the correlation analysis was used to analyze the correlation between the flowering time and the weather factors such as temperature, precipitation and sunshine at the early flowering stage. The results showed that the average temperature in the early period, the average minimum temperature and the accumulated temperature during the wintering period had a good correlation with the flowering time. By using the stepwise regression method and the SPSS software, the prediction model of flowering season was established with an average error of 2.2 days, The error of 3 days accounted for 75% of the total number of samples, the model fitting effect is better, the prediction accuracy meets the business requirements, which can provide more accurate initial flowering forecast, provide scientific basis for farmers to reasonably arrange production and advance the decision-making deployment of the agricultural sector .