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在宏观经济及企业盈利增速下降的背景下,下半年行业景气状况将发生较大变化:伴随着固定资产投资增速的回落,周期性投资品行业的景气将继续回调;在贸易摩擦等一系列负面因素的影响下,出口导向型行业盈利将受到较大冲击;消费对于经济的拉动作用将有所增强,非周期性消费品行业、基础设施和公共服务类行业仍将保持稳定增长;随着人民币汇率机制调整时机的日趋成熟,人民币升值预期对相关行业景气的影响将在2005年下半年逐步体现。行业投资以防御为主,对周期性行业和受人民币影响较大的行业进行波段操作。继续持有业绩稳定增长、估值合理的非周期性消费品、基础设施和公共服务类行业龙头公司;适当增持有可能从上游价格回落过程中受益的行业或公司;适当关注有望从人民币升值过程中受益的行业或公司;对周期性行业采取波段操作,总体减持的策略,防范投资增速回落带来的行业周期见顶风险;战略性减持出口导向型行业,防范出口增速回落及人民币升值带来的风险。
In the context of macroeconomic and declining growth of corporate profits, the business sentiment in the second half of the year will undergo a major change: along with the drop in the growth rate of investment in fixed assets, the cyclical investment product industry will continue its recovery; in trade frictions, etc. Series of negative factors, the profitability of export-oriented industries will be more impact; the stimulus for consumption will be enhanced, the non-cyclical consumer goods industry, infrastructure and public service industries will maintain steady growth; with the The timing of RMB exchange rate regime adjustment is maturing. The impact of RMB appreciation expectation on the related industry sentiment will gradually be reflected in the second half of 2005. Investment in the industry is dominated by the defense sector, which operates in a cyclical industry and industries heavily influenced by the RMB. Continue to hold steady growth in non-cyclical cyclical consumer goods, infrastructure and public services sectors with steady growth and reasonable valuation; appropriately increase holdings of industries or companies that may benefit from the upstream price drop; and give due attention to the expected revaluation process from RMB Benefit from the industry or company; band operation of the cyclical industry, the overall reduction of the strategy to prevent the investment growth rate brought down the peak of the industry cycle risks; strategic reduction of export-oriented industries to prevent the export growth rate down and Risks from RMB appreciation.