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通过对国内外储罐失效概率研究方法的分析,本文引入复杂网络事故传播理论和马尔科夫链,建立基于马尔科夫链的复杂网络事故传播模型,以解决传统方法涉及较少的储罐之间的n-n相互作用问题。并进行实例分析,将该模型计算结果与传统方法进行对比,结果表明,该模型计算结果能为安全防范提供了更好的建议。
By analyzing the research methods of failure probability of storage tanks at home and abroad, this paper introduces complex network accident propagation theory and Markov chain to establish a complex network accident propagation model based on Markov chain, in order to solve the problem that traditional methods involve less storage tanks Between the nn interaction problem. The case analysis is carried out and the result of the model is compared with that of the traditional method. The results show that the calculated result of the model can provide better advice for safety precaution.