在役结构，由于受到腐蚀、疲劳等因素的作用，结构参数、材料的机械性能等都会发生变化。这些影响因素具有不确定性，即灰性。由于在授复杂结构剩余强度的影响因素较多和因素的不确定性，很难从数学和力学模型出发，得到有效的破坏载荷计算公式。为此，本文运用灰色系统理论的建模方法，提出采用灰色数列预测法预测结构的失效载荷，并结合实验考证了GM（1．1）模型及其新息模型的精度，并指出了应用这一方法时应注意的事项。 In-service structure, due to corrosion, fatigue and other factors, structural parameters, mechanical properties of materials will change. These factors are uncertain, ie, gray. Due to the many factors that influence the residual strength and the uncertainty of the factors, it is very hard to get the formulas of failure load calculation from mathematical and mechanical models. Therefore, in this paper, the gray system theory is used to predict the failure load of the structure by using the gray sequence prediction method. The accuracy of the GM (1.1) model and its interest model are verified through experiments. A method should pay attention to the matter.