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核电项目往往具有投资大、周期长、技术复杂的特点,并且投资回报具有不可预见性和不确定性,因此对核电项目进行风险评价具有重要意义。分析了政治风险、法律风险、自然环境风险、经济风险、管理风险、安全风险、财务风险等核电项目风险因素的特点。在借鉴国内外研究成果的基础上,结合核电项目的特点,建立了核电项目的投资风险评价指标体系。设计了涵盖了7个一级指标、19个二级指标的调查问卷。指标的测量均采用李克特5级打分法。利用SPSS 20.0统计分析软件对问卷数据进行分析。根据评价指标对核电项目投资风险影响程度的统计分析结果,剔除了与项目相关性不明显的两个指标。对修正后的指标体系进行因子分析后,共提取7个公因子,最终构建了一个包括政策法律风险、安全风险、经济风险、管理风险、技术风险、财务风险和人员风险7个一级指标和政策法规健全程度、政策法规的稳定性等17个二级指标的核电项目投资风险评价指标体系。
Nuclear power projects often have the characteristics of large investment, long period and complex technology, and the return on investment is unpredictable and uncertain. Therefore, it is of great significance to evaluate the risk of nuclear power projects. The characteristics of risk factors such as political risk, legal risk, natural environment risk, economic risk, management risk, security risk and financial risk are analyzed. Based on the research results at home and abroad, combined with the characteristics of nuclear power projects, the investment risk evaluation index system for nuclear power projects was established. A questionnaire covering 7 first-level indicators and 19 second-level indicators was designed. The indicators are measured using Likert 5-point scoring method. Use SPSS 20.0 statistical analysis software to analyze the questionnaire data. According to the statistical analysis of the impact of evaluation index on the investment risk of nuclear power project, two indicators with no obvious correlation with the project are excluded. After factor analysis of the revised index system, a total of seven common factors were extracted, and finally a seven-level index including policy legal risk, security risk, economic risk, management risk, technical risk, financial risk and personnel risk and The soundness of policies and regulations, the stability of policies and regulations, and other 17 secondary indicators of nuclear power project investment risk assessment index system.