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实测系列法和设计洪水地区组成法是现行防洪库容设计中最常见的方法，然而它们在理论及应用中存在着诸多不易解决的问题。有鉴于此，以随机模拟法为基础，建立了求解防洪发电相结合的水库群防洪库容优化模型。在洪水的模拟方面，使用多站典型解集模型，并提出一种新的模型参数估计方法———多站权重模型适线法。实践证明，该方法对于多站非简单样本的参数估计是有效的。在水库群防洪库容优化分配方面，以随机动态规划方法为依据，结合我们推导的多元线性条件相关余差模式求解条件概率分布。模型在湖南省某大流域水库群防洪库容的设计中得到了应用，并取得了较好的效果。
The measured series method and the design flood area composition method are the most common methods in flood control capacity design. However, they have many problems in theory and application which are not easy to solve. In view of this, based on the stochastic simulation method, a flood control reservoir capacity optimization model for flood control power generation is established. In flood simulation, multi-station typical solution set model is proposed and a new model parameter estimation method is proposed, that is, multi-station weighted model fitting method. Practice has proved that this method is effective for parameter estimation of multi-station non-simple samples. In terms of optimal allocation of flood control reservoir capacity, based on the stochastic dynamic programming method, the conditional probability distribution is solved based on the multivariate linear conditional residual mode. The model has been applied in the design of reservoir flood control capacity in a large drainage basin in Hunan Province and has achieved good results.