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从上世纪90年代中期至今的10年左右时间,在中日两国国内以及两国之间都充满了“逆转”。在日本,这10年的前半段,是全社会依然笼罩在“失落的10年”(80年代后期至90年代后期)的阴影之下,日本持续了30余年、且似乎要一直持续下去的的高增长神话已彻底破灭,经济停滞甚至动辄出现负增长,当年以“日本第一”之口号傲视全球的国民自信遭到极其沉重的打击。这是战后日本国内面临的第一个巨大逆转。但从2002年至今,日本终于出现了稳定持续的正增长,而且这种势头迄今未见衰退。在日本人的希望中,这轮被称为“小泉景气”的正增长能成为日本经济摆脱病态、朝向健康的一次逆转。与日本形成鲜明对比的是,中国近10年的经济处在一路高歌猛进之中,这一进程在国际上的体现,是中国在全球经济中的崛起速度令所有的经济大国不断发出惊呼,日本这个老牌的亚洲第一大经济强国也前所未有地对中国经济的前景显示了“谦恭”乃至“畏惧”;在中国国民心理上的体现,则是出现了百年来从未有过的自信——这种自信在一些时候已经具有了“自负”的味道,如在互联网上,许多中国网民已经开始“藐视”日本了。对中国人而言,这当然也是一种不可忽视的“逆转”。但是,中国人心理上的这一“逆转”真的具有足够的现实基础吗?日本真的“衰弱”到了可以被中国“藐视”的地步了吗?本刊顾问姜波先生,曾在日本学习多年,又以《经济日报》特派记者身份常驻日本多年,1997年回到中国工作,2007年再度造访日本。他的近距离观察或许有助于国人寻找上面这些问题的答案。
In the 10 years or so since the mid-1990s of the last century, there has been a “reversal” in both China and Japan and between the two countries. In Japan, the first half of the 10-year period saw the whole society still shrouding in the shadow of “the Lost 10 Years” (from the late 1980s to the late 1990s), which Japan lasted for more than 30 years and seemed to be continuing The myth of high growth has been completely shattered, the economy has stagnated or even has negative growth at any time, and the confidence of the people who cling to the world with the slogan of “Japan first” was hit extremely hard. This is the first major reversal in the post-war Japan. However, Japan has finally witnessed steady and sustained positive growth since 2002, and so far this trend has not seen a recession. In the hope of the Japanese, this round of positive growth, which is called “the prosperity of the Koizumi,” can be a reversal of the Japanese economy from sickness and health. In stark contrast with Japan, the economy of China has enjoyed a triumphant march in the past 10 years. The international manifestation of this process is that the rapid rise of China in the global economy has constantly exclaimed all the major economic powers. Japan, The veteran Asia’s number one economic powerhouse has also shown “humility” and even “fear” to the future of China’s economy as never before. The psychological manifestation of the Chinese people is the emergence of confidence never seen in centuries Confidence at some times already has the “proud” taste, as on the Internet, many Chinese netizens have begun to “defy” Japan. For the Chinese, this of course is also a “reversal” that can not be ignored. However, does this “reversal” on the Chinese psychology really have a sufficient realistic basis? Can Japan really “weaken” to the extent that it can be “flouted” by China? The consultant Mr. Jiang Bo, who studied in Japan For many years, she also resided in Japan for many years as correspondent for Economic Daily, returned to China in 1997 and visited Japan again in 2007. His close observation may help people find the answers to these questions.