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根据我国猪肉消费量的特点,建立了一个新的我国猪肉年度消费需求量预测的分解-集成模型.首先,为了预测我国猪肉消费需求量,根据全国猪肉农村和城市猪肉消费量的不同特点,将我国猪肉消费需求量分解农村和城市猪肉消费量.其次,根据GANN和WNN时间序列模型,建立了一个综合集成预测模型,分别对我国农村和城市的猪肉消费量进行了预测.最后,将农村和城市猪肉需求量的预测结果进行集成,得到全国猪肉需求量.为了验证所提出方法的有效性,将其与其他常用预测方法进行了对比,实证研究结果表明,提出的集成预测模型在我国全国猪肉消费需求量预测上取得了较好的效果.
According to the characteristics of pork consumption in our country, a new decomposition-integrated model of pork consumption forecast in China is established.Firstly, in order to predict the consumption demand of pork in China, according to the different characteristics of pork consumption in rural pork and urban areas in China, The consumption demand of pork in our country divides the consumption of pork in rural and urban areas.Secondly, according to the time series model of GANN and WNN, a comprehensive integrated forecasting model is established to predict the pork consumption in rural and urban areas of our country respectively.Finally, Urban pork demand forecast results are integrated to get the national pork demand.In order to verify the effectiveness of the proposed method, compared with other commonly used forecasting methods, the empirical results show that the proposed integrated forecasting model in China’s national pork Consumption demand forecast has achieved good results.