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进入21世纪后,世界能源价格异常波动并影响着中国能源价格的运行,其波动风险有可能转化为能源安全风险,直接关系到国民经济持续、快速、健康的发展和国家发展战略的实现。本文基于经典的价格监测预警理论,在研究能源价格监测预警内容、方式和手段基础上,构建了能源价格监测预警指标体系,提出了能源价格波动警情界定、应急预案制定与启动的思路和方法,可以为具体展开实际预警操作提供参考方案,从而进一步为能源价格调控、根据价格波动风险状况进行决策提供依据。
Since the 21st century, the world energy prices fluctuate abnormally and affect the operation of China’s energy prices. The risk of fluctuations is likely to translate into energy security risks, which is directly related to the sustained, rapid and healthy development of the national economy and the realization of the national development strategy. Based on the classic theory of price monitoring and early warning, based on the study of the contents, methods and measures of energy price monitoring and early warning, this paper constructs an indicator system of energy price monitoring and early warning, puts forward the ideas and methods of defining and starting the emergency plan of energy price fluctuation , Which can provide a reference solution for the concrete implementation of actual early warning operation, thus further providing a basis for energy price control and making decisions based on the risk of price fluctuation.