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针对国内外现有干旱应用研究往往忽略所采用模型与方法对研究结果存在的影响这一研究缺陷。利用我国中东部地区42个气象监测站点1961-2011年的降水资料,选用SPI指数对比分析了1月、3月、6月、12月四个时间尺度下中东部地区代表站点和月份的时空演化特征。结果表明:(1)不同时间尺度下研究区轻、中、重度干旱出现的时间和概率差异较大,无明显变化规律,但在中度干旱代表站点呈现出总体趋势一致的情况;(2)不同时间尺度下研究区各等级干旱空间分异明显,在中度干旱代表月份呈现出随时间尺度扩大的突变特征,在轻度和重度干旱代表月份,均表现为1月时间尺度下各等级干旱范围变化较大,3月、6月和12月时间尺度下几乎零面积干旱的特征。文中研究在证实区域干旱时空演化特征会随着所选SPI指数时间尺度变化而改变的同时,也肯定了在今后干旱应用研究中开展评估方法本身稳定性和适用性分析的必要性与意义。
Research on current domestic and international drought applications often neglects the research flaws of the impact of the models and methods used on the research results. Based on the precipitation data of 42 meteorological stations in the central and eastern regions of China from 1961 to 2011, the SPI index was used to analyze the temporal and spatial evolution of the representative sites and months in the eastern and eastern regions in January, March, June and December feature. The results showed that: (1) The time and probability of light, moderate and severe drought in the study area differed greatly at different timescales without any significant change, but the overall trend of moderate drought showed a consistent trend; (2) The spatial heterogeneity of drought in each grade in the study area is obvious under different timescales, showing a sudden change with time scales in the representative months of moderate drought, while in the representative months of mild and severe drought, all grades of drought in the January time scale The range varies widely, with nearly zero area droughts on the March, June and December time scales. The paper also confirms the necessity and significance of carrying out the stability and suitability analysis of the assessment method in the future application of drought response while confirming that the temporal and spatial evolution of regional drought will change with the time scale of selected SPI index.