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本文从韦布尔(Weibull)分布λ_(t)=λ_0t~(P-1)出发,推导了表示地震时间序列特征的W参数,并对华北地区1966年邢台(Ms)6.8级,1975年海城(Ms)7.3级和1976年唐山(Ms)7.8级地震的序列资料进行了处理:当W值低于平均水平时可认为是强余震前兆信息的开始;当W值接近或低于警界线σ_时,很可能有强余震发生。W-t曲线与强余震对应结果较好。邢台、海城及唐山强余震的对应结果监定评分分别为:R=0.680,R=0.517及R=0.532,表明用W参数预测华北几次大震的强余震效果是比较显著的。
Based on the Weibull distribution λ_ (t) = λ_0t ~ (P-1), this paper derives the W parameters which represent the characteristics of the time series of earthquakes. In the paper, (MS) 7.3 and 1976 Ms Ms 7.8 earthquakes, the onset of strong aftershock precursors can be considered as a starting point when the value of W is below average; when the value of W is close to or below the boundary of the police line σ _, It is possible that a strong aftershock will occur. The corresponding W-t curve and strong aftershock result is better. The corresponding monitoring scores of Xingtai, Haicheng and Tangshan strong aftershocks are R = 0.680, R = 0.517 and R = 0.532, respectively. It shows that the W parameters are used to predict the strong aftershocks of several large earthquakes in North China.