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在考虑土体参数空间变异性基础上,提出了基于多重随机响应面法的边坡系统可靠度分析方法,同时建议了一种新的代表性滑动面搜索方法.采用Karhunen-Loève展开方法离散二维相关非高斯随机场,通过Hermite随机多项式展开近似代表性滑动面安全系数与土体参数间的非线性隐式函数关系,在此基础上采用直接蒙特卡洛模拟计算边坡系统失效概率.研究了所提方法在考虑参数空间变异性的边坡系统可靠度分析中的应用.结果表明,提出的基于多重随机响应面法的系统可靠度分析方法为考虑参数空间变异性的边坡系统可靠度问题提供了一条有效的分析途径.提出的代表性滑动面确定方法具有较高的计算精度和效率,无需单独计算滑动面安全系数间的相关性,而且能够有效地计算低概率水平的边坡系统可靠度.边坡系统失效概率随着抗剪强度参数变异性和垂直相关距离的增大而增加、随着抗剪强度参数间负相关性的增加而减小.此外,忽略土体参数空间变异性会明显高估边坡系统失效概率.
Based on the spatial variability of soil parameters, a reliability analysis method of slope system based on multiple stochastic response surface method is proposed, and a new representative method of sliding surface search is proposed.Using Karhunen-Loève expansion method, Dimensional non-Gaussian random field, the nonlinear implicit function between the representative sliding surface safety factor and soil parameters is expanded by Hermite stochastic polynomial, and the slope failure probability is calculated by direct Monte Carlo simulation. The proposed method is applied to the reliability analysis of slope system considering the spatial variability of parameters.The results show that the reliability analysis method of the system based on multiple random response surface method is the slope system reliability considering the spatial variability of parameters The problem provides an effective way of analysis.The proposed method for determining the slip surface has high computational accuracy and efficiency without the need to separately calculate the correlation between the slip surface safety factors and can effectively calculate the slope system with low probability level Reliability The failure probability of slope system increases with the variation of shear strength parameter and vertical correlation distance But increases with the increase of the negative correlation of shear strength parameters.In addition, neglecting the spatial variability of soil parameters will obviously overestimate the failure probability of slope system.