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通过研究和分析川藏公路然乌-鲁朗段的泥石流灾害资料,总结了该路段的泥石流灾害在时间和空间上所呈现出的动态变化特征。泥石流灾害的时空动态变化特征表明泥石流灾害的危险性是时间和空间的函数,是动态变化的。借助于“熵”的理论和方法,引入了“地质灾害熵”的概念。在此基础上,提出了一种泥石流灾害危险性动态分析的新方法。最后,使用该方法对该路段某些大型、特大型冰川泥石流灾害的危险性进行了动态分析。分析结果与实际情况的一致性表明了这种新方法的合理性和可靠性。
By studying and analyzing the debris flow hazard information of the Ranwu-Lulang section of Sichuan-Tibet Highway, the dynamic characteristics of the debris flow disaster in the section in time and space are summarized. The temporal and spatial dynamic characteristics of debris flow hazards indicate that the danger of debris flow hazards is a function of time and space and is dynamic. With the help of “entropy” theory and method, the concept of “geological hazard entropy” has been introduced. On this basis, a new method of dynamic analysis of debris flow hazards is proposed. Finally, this method is used to analyze the danger of some large-scale and large-scale glacial debris flow hazards in this section. The consistency of the analysis results with the actual situation shows the rationality and reliability of this new method.