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3月,黄金延续2月最后交易日的回调走势,回顾今年3月的黄金行情,实物金需求是季节性传统淡季,金价在美国国债需求旺盛,分流黄金避险资金的背景下,跟随风险资产下跌。有观点认为,只有QE3(第三次量化宽松)才能帮助黄金彻底摆脱低迷行情。笔者认为,QE3无疑会给黄金价格打了一针强心剂,助其摆脱颓势快速上涨,但并不认为QE3是必要条件。黄金最重要的价值在于对抗信用风险。政治动荡、伊朗核危机爆发、地区间战争爆发,对金价来说都是有力助推器。
In March, gold extended its callback trend on the last trading day of February. Looking back on the gold market in March this year, the demand for physical gold is a seasonal traditional off-season. Against the background of strong demand for U.S. treasuries and diversion of gold hedge funds, gold follows risk assets Fall. The view is that only QE3 (the third quantitative easing) can help gold completely out of the doldrums. I believe that QE3 will undoubtedly give the price of gold hit a shot of cardiac stimulants to help them get rid of the rapid decline in the trend, but do not think QE3 is a necessary condition. The most important value of gold lies in its fight against credit risk. Political turmoil, the outbreak of Iran’s nuclear crisis and the outbreak of inter-regional wars are all powerful boosters for the price of gold.