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摩根士丹利首席经济师史蒂芬·罗奇在最新发表的“驯服巨龙”全球经济调研报告中指出,中国经济目前正处于由白热化向较为可持续的增长轨道过渡的关键时刻。他深信,中国领导层将会成功地克服难关。因为“巨龙如走错方向,损失将非同小可”。经济减速才刚开始罗奇指出,中国经济的减速才刚刚开始。目前最新的一个说法是经济“软着陆”可能即将到来。这实在是“错得不能再错”。中国经济仍以强劲和不可能持续的速度继续扩张。政府当局对调控措施的执行不能掉以轻心。不然的话,过热的中国经济将带来足以破坏稳定的“硬着陆”风险。他认为,中国第二季的 GDP 增长(+9.6%)较预期为低是引起混淆的直接原因。表面看,9.6%的同比增长不仅比第一季度的9.8%轻微下降,更明显低于市场预期的10.5%至11.0%的水平。但不论是按什么标准,9.6%仍是一个极为快速的增长率,比中国最近20年平均 GDP 增长水平高出0.5个百分点。其次,最新的 GDP 预测数据可能低估了实际的增长情况。这不单是计算质量令人怀疑,而且隐蔽了工业活动的影响。
Stephen Roach, chief economist at Morgan Stanley, pointed out in his latest report titled “Taming the Dragon” that the Chinese economy is currently at a crucial moment of transition from a white-hot to a more sustainable growth. He is convinced that the Chinese leadership will successfully overcome the storm. Because “the dragon is going in the wrong direction, the loss will be the same.” Roach pointed out that the slowdown of the Chinese economy has just begun. The latest statement is that the economy “soft landing” may be coming. This is really “wrong can not be wrong ”. China’s economy will continue to expand at a speed that is both strong and impossible. The government authorities can not take light measures in implementing the control measures. If not, the overheated economy in China will bring risks enough to destabilize the “hard landing.” He believes that the second quarter of China’s GDP growth (+ 9.6%) lower than expected is the direct cause of confusion. On the face of it, the 9.6% YoY growth is not only slightly lower than 9.8% in the first quarter, but also significantly lower than market expectations of 10.5% to 11.0%. However, by any standard, 9.6% is still an extremely rapid growth rate, 0.5 percentage points above the average GDP growth of China in the recent two decades. Second, the latest GDP forecast may underestimate the real growth. This is not only questionable quality of calculation, but also conceals the impact of industrial activities.