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2013年中国出现了GDP增速放缓而利率水平上升(无论名义利率还是实际利率)的“利率逆反”现象,是2003年至2012年间利率水平过低“物极必反”的后果,也和利率市场化进程缓慢以及货币政策“汇率为纲”的调控架构有关。中央银行在社会融资渠道发生巨大变化的背景下,不得不发挥利率工具作用调控货币总供求。如果政府本着维护国有企业地位,货币政策可能难以避免地要降低利率水平,增加信贷额度定向支持企业,中国经济似乎再次回到1998年至2002年的调整时期。经验教训证明,越能够主动地推进利率市场化进程,坚持货币政策稳健,经济越能够重振活力和实现增长,反之经济萧条的时间就越长。
In 2013, China witnessed a phenomenon of “reverse interest rates” in which the growth rate of GDP was slowing down and interest rates rose (whether nominal or real), a consequence of too low an interest rate between 2003 and 2012 And the interest rate liberalization process is slow and monetary policy “exchange rate as the key link ” regulation framework. Under the background of tremendous changes in social financing channels, central banks have to play the role of interest rate instruments in regulating the total money supply and demand. If the government, in keeping with its status as a state-owned enterprise, may inevitably be forced to lower interest rates and increase the credit line to support enterprises, it seems that the Chinese economy once again returns to the adjustment period from 1998 to 2002. Lessons and lessons prove that the more we can proactively push forward the marketization of interest rates, the more robust monetary policy, the more the economy can revitalize and grow, and the longer it will take for a recession.