三化螟蛾始盛期和盛发高峰期的预测是螟卵孵化始盛期和盛孵高峰期预测的前提,而螟卵孵化始盛期和高峰期的预测又是指导适期防治的关键时期。因此,把握好三化螟蛾始盛期和盛发高峰期的预测是非常重要的。过去我们对三化螟蛾发生期的预测是依据幼虫的发育进度、化蛹进度的预测指标作近期预测,并以期距预测法预测作参考的。为了由近期预测提高到中期预测,笔者整理了惠阳县农作物病虫测报站三十年三化螟蛾发生期的资料,试图利用 The prediction of the initial stage and the peak stage of the stem borer was the premise of the initial stage of hatching and the peak stage of hatching, while the prediction of the initial stage and the peak stage of hatching eggs borers was the key point to guide the proper stage of prevention and treatment period. Therefore, it is very important to grasp the prediction of the initial stage and peak period of the stem borers. In the past, we predicted the occurrence of the stem borer moth according to the progress of the larvae and the predicting index of the progress of pupation, and predicted it by the prediction of the period prediction method. In order to improve from the recent forecast to the mid-term forecast, the author sorted out the Huiyang County crop pest forecasting station thirty years of the occurrence of moth moth information, trying to use