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本文采用非自愿超额准备金率的增长率作为流动性状态的衡量指标,通过建立超额准备金的动态模型和门限向量自回归(TVAR)模型,考察了非自愿超额准备金率增长率周期性波动情况和不同流动性状态下货币政策的传导效应.研究表明,自1998年以来,在外汇占款、银行贷款和贷款利率的作用下,流动性状态发生了过剩与短缺之间的周期性转换,并且流动性过剩状态与短缺状态相比,货币政策传导的产出和价格效应均有所弱化.“,”Viewing involuntary excess reserve growth rate as indicator of liquidity condition, the paper applies excess reserve dynamic model and TVAR model to investigate the relationship between fluctuations of involuntary excess reserve growth rate and effectiveness of monetary policy in different liquidity condition. The result shows that liquidity condition has cyclically transformed between liquidity surplus and shortage since 1998, which is affected comprehensively by foreign exchange reserve, bank loan and lending rate. And also, the policy effectiveness on output and price is weakened in liquidity surplus condition, compared to liquidity shortage condition.