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对于高风险企业的价值评估,如果采用传统的折现现金流量模型会有很多特殊的问题。企业未来的销售收入和成本的风险可能会有不同,还有破产的风险,这些都不可能用静态的常规假设的增长率来反映。本文介绍一种在折现现金流量模型中运用蒙特卡洛模拟的方法,应该能够得出更加符合实际的结果。
For the valuation of high-risk businesses, there are a number of unique problems with the traditional model of discounted cash flow. The risk of future sales revenue and costs for the business may be different, as well as the risk of bankruptcy, all of which can not be reflected in the static growth rate of the conventional assumptions. This article presents a method that uses Monte Carlo simulation in a discounted cash flow model that should yield more realistic results.