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采用美国农业部土壤保持局推荐的方法计算有效降水量,应用Penman-Monteith模型和作物系数法计算需水量,在对河南省1981—2010年冬小麦生育期内有效降水量、需水量和缺水量分析的基础上,结合《排放情景特别报告》的两种排放情景A2(强调经济发展)和B2(强调可持续发展)预估的未来气候情景,探讨了未来气候情景下河南省冬小麦的有效降水量、需水量和缺水量的时空演变规律及其主要气候影响因素.结果表明:从整体上看,相对于基准时段(1981—2010年),A2和B2情景下,不同时段冬小麦全生育期的有效降水量、需水量和缺水量均表现出增加趋势,有效降水量均以2030s时段增加最多,分别增加33.5%和39.2%;需水量均以2010s时段增加最多,分别增加22.5%和17.5%,年代间呈现明显递减趋势;缺水量在A2情景下以2010s时段增加(23.6%)最多,B2情景下以2020s时段增加(13.0%)最多.偏相关分析表明,A2和B2情景下,太阳总辐射是影响河南省冬小麦需水量和缺水量变化的主要气候因素.由于地理环境和气候条件的差异,不同时段河南省冬小麦全生育期有效降水量、需水量和缺水量的距平百分率在空间分布上具有差异.未来河南省水资源可能更趋于短缺.
According to the method recommended by Soil Conservation Department of the United States Department of Agriculture to calculate the effective precipitation, Penman-Monteith model and crop coefficient method were used to calculate the water requirement. During the period of 1981-2010 winter wheat growth, effective precipitation, water requirement and water deficit Based on the analysis and the future climate scenarios predicted by the two emission scenarios A2 (emphasis on economic development) and B2 (emphasis on sustainable development) of the Special Emission Scenarios Report, the effective precipitation of winter wheat in Henan Province under future climate scenarios The results showed that: Compared with the baseline period (1981-2010), in the A2 and B2 scenarios, the winter wheat growth period The effective precipitation, water demand and water deficit all showed an increasing trend. The effective precipitation increased most by 2030s, increasing by 33.5% and 39.2% respectively. The water demand increased by 22.5% and 17.5% respectively in 2010s %, With a significant decreasing trend in the years; the water deficit increased most significantly in 2010s (23.6%) in A2 scenario and increased (13.0%) in 2020s scenario in B2 scenario. Partial correlation analysis showed that A2 B2, the total solar radiation is the main climatic factor affecting winter wheat water demand and water deficit change in Henan Province.Due to the difference of geographical environment and climatic conditions, the effective precipitation, water requirement and water deficit during the whole growth period of winter wheat in different periods The amount of anomalies in the spatial distribution of the percentage differences in the future may be more water resources in Henan Province are in short supply.