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目的 论述和探索灰色预测和灰色关联分析在医院管理中应用的方式和途径。方法 以某医院入院人数为例 ,应用灰色系统理论建立了 GM(1,1)灰色预测模型和面积关联度分析法 ,对该院 1992年至 2 0 0 0年的入院人数及影响入院人数的院内因素进行了预测和分析。结果 所建预测模型拟合精度高 (C=0 .0 46 <0 .35 ,P=1>0 .95 )可用于外推预测 ;所选的与该院入院人数相关的 7个比较因素 ,其关联程度由强到弱依次为病床周转次数、治愈有效率、在岗医务人员数、病床数、平均住院日、门急诊人次、病死率。结论 灰色预测和灰色关联分析的有机结合在医院管理中有更为广阔的用途。
Objective To discuss and explore the methods and ways of applying gray prediction and grey correlation analysis in hospital management. Methods Taking the number of hospital admissions for a certain hospital as an example, the grey system theory was used to establish the GM(1,1) gray prediction model and area correlation analysis method. The number of hospital admissions from 1992 to 2000 and the number of people affected In-hospital factors were forecasted and analyzed. Results The accuracy of the prediction model built (C=0. 0 46 <0 .35, P=1> 0.95) can be used for extrapolation prediction; the selected seven factors related to the number of hospital admissions, The degree of association from strong to weak was the number of beds turnover, the efficiency of the cure, the number of medical staff on the job, the number of beds, the average length of stay, the number of emergency visits, and the mortality rate. Conclusion The combination of grey prediction and grey correlation analysis has a broader application in hospital management.