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将预期的资本存量引入现阶段的投资决策函数,同时考虑资本积累过程中的投资时滞,构建一个含有预期和时滞的经济周期模型.首先利用微分动力系统相关的理论研究系统的稳定性,然后把投资时滞或资本存量的预测时间作为分支参数,讨论由此参数导致Hopf分支的条件,并执行一些数值模拟以验证所得结论.研究结果表明:资本存量预期和投资时滞共同构成经济周期的诱导因素;对资本存量进行短期合理的预测,据此制定投资决策,能够在一定程度上冲销由投资时滞所造成的经济波动.
The expected capital stock is introduced into the investment decision function of the current stage and the investment lag in the process of capital accumulation is considered to build an economic cycle model with expected and time lags.Firstly the stability of the system is studied by using the theory of differential dynamic system, Then the forecasting time of investment delay or capital stock is taken as the branch parameter, the condition of Hopf bifurcation caused by this parameter is discussed, and some numerical simulations are carried out to verify the conclusion. The results show that the capital stock expectation and investment delay together constitute the economic cycle ; Make short-term and reasonable projections of the capital stock and formulate investment decisions accordingly, to a certain extent offset the economic fluctuations caused by the investment lag.