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本文研究人口年龄结构对中国经济增长的需求影响机制。从封闭、开放视角分析人口年龄结构对储蓄率、经常项目差额的影响,从长期动态视角探讨人口年龄结构、经常项目差额、储蓄、经济增长之间的格兰杰因果关系。研究发现:从人口结构角度可较好的解释中国“高储蓄、高顺差”现象,年龄结构变动显著影响储蓄率和经常项目差额,人口年龄结构变动作用于经济增长的短期渠道通畅:人口年龄结构、储蓄、经常项目差额、经济增长之间存在长期因果关系和稳定均衡作用。
This paper studies the impact of population age structure on China’s economic growth. From the perspective of closure and opening up, this paper analyzes the influence of population age structure on saving rate and current account balance, and discusses the Granger causality between population age structure, current account balance, saving and economic growth from a long-term dynamic perspective. The findings are as follows: From the perspective of population structure, China can better explain the phenomenon of “high savings and high surpluses”. The changes in age structure significantly affect the savings rate and the current account balance. The short-term channels of economic growth are affected by the changes in population age structure: There is a long-term causal relationship and stable equilibrium between age structure, saving, current account balance and economic growth.