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研究市场机制下影响电厂建设的随机不确定因素,对于形成理性、科学的发电容量投资决策具有重要意义。在考虑投资者面临的新建电厂的类型、位置、容量、政策、价格等不确定性因素的基础上,基于净现值法、实物期权、风险价值和投资组合理论,构建了发电投资决策模型,通过仿真算例对比了投资燃煤和燃气两种技术方案下不同因素对投资决策的影响,结果可为投资者是否进行延迟投资及投资组合提供依据。
Studying the random uncertain factors that affect the construction of power plants under the market mechanism is of great significance to the formation of a rational and scientific power generation capacity investment decision. Based on the uncertainty factors such as the type, location, capacity, policy and price of the newly-built power plant that investors face, this paper constructs the model of power generation investment decision based on net present value method, real option, risk value and portfolio theory, Through the simulation example, the influence of different factors on the investment decision-making under two different technical schemes of coal-fired and gas-fired investment is compared. The result can provide basis for investors whether to delay investment and portfolio.