目前,国内经济管理正朝着现代化方向突飞猛进地发展,许多财务顶测和决策中的数量分析方法,如预测中的趋势平均数法、直线趋势法、线性回归法等,决策中的投资年报酬率法、偿还期法、内含报酬率法等,已为人们所熟知。为了掌握更多更好的分析工具,本文介绍一种国外广泛采用而国内尚属陌生的财务分析方法——蒙特卡罗模拟法(Monte Carlo Slmulation)。它是从实际存在的数学模型出发(例如“利润=销售收入-工厂成本”就是一个最简单的数学模型),按随机抽样原则,选择最优方案并预测经营目标的一种相当有价值的数量分析方法。它共有五个步骤。为明了起见,下面结合分析一家面包店的平均每周利润来说明这五个步骤的基本做法。步骤一:确定我们所要分析的随机变量及其概率分布。随机变量应视具体情形而定,其概率分布数据可以从实际抽样过程中获得,也可以从历史资料或者从管理者经验所作出的预测中获得。本例中,分析的目的是了解该面包店的平均每周利润。众所周知,在每块面包提供的利润额一定的情况 At present, domestic economic management is developing rapidly and rapidly in the direction of modernization. Many methods of quantitative analysis in financial top measurement and decision-making, such as the trend average method, straight-line trend method, linear regression method, etc. in forecast, annual investment returns in decision-making The rate method, the repayment method, and the internal rate of return method are well known. In order to master more and better analysis tools, this article introduces a Monte Carlo simulation method that is widely used in China and yet is unfamiliar in China. It starts from the actual mathematical model (for example, “profit = sales revenue - factory cost” is the simplest mathematical model), according to the principle of random sampling, choose a best plan and predict a very valuable quantity of business objectives. Analytical method. It has five steps. For the sake of clarity, the following is an analysis of the average weekly profit of a bakery to illustrate the basics of these five steps. Step one: Determine the random variables we want to analyze and their probability distributions. The random variable should be determined according to the specific situation. The probability distribution data can be obtained from the actual sampling process, and can also be obtained from the historical data or the prediction made by the manager’s experience. In this case, the purpose of the analysis is to understand the average weekly profit of the bakery. As we all know, the amount of profit provided in each piece of bread is certain