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利用1971～2000年东北三省101个气象站逐日气象资料以及国家气候中心发布的未来气候变化情景(A1B)下区域气候模式(RegCM3)模拟的东北地区1951～2100年0.25°×0.25°格点气象资料,结合东北玉米生长发育对气候条件的需求,分析了气候变化下东北三省农业气候资源的变化趋势以及气候变化对东北三省玉米品种熟型布局、玉米气候生产潜力的影响,并通过调整播种期来寻求提高玉米气候生产潜力的有效途径.农业气候资源要素包括:≥10℃初日、初霜日、生育期日数、≥10℃活动积温、生育期内总辐射及降水量.结果表明:(1)气候变化使未来100年东北地区≥10℃初日逐渐提前、初霜日延后、生育期日数延长、≥10℃活动积温显著增多、生育期内总辐射有所增加、降水变化不明显.(2)气候变化使东北地区适宜种植的玉米品种熟型由早熟型向晚熟型过渡,不同品种的种植界限不断北移东扩.(3)气候变化使东北玉米气候生产潜力发生了显著变化,其高值区将逐渐向东北方向移动.(4)适当的调整播种期是一种提高玉米气候生产潜力的有效途径.
Based on the daily meteorological data of 101 meteorological stations in the three northeastern provinces from 1971 to 2000 and the weather forecast of 0.25 ° × 0.25 ° grids from 1951 to 2100 in northeastern China simulated by the Regional Climate Model (RegCM3) under the future climate change scenario (A1B) released by the National Climate Center According to the demand of climatic conditions for the growth and development of maize in northeast China, this paper analyzes the changing trend of agricultural climate resources under the climate change in three provinces in northeast China and the effect of climatic changes on the maturity distribution of maize varieties and the potential productivity of maize in the three northeastern provinces. By adjusting seeding period, (1) the first day, the first day of frost, the number of days of growing period, the active accumulated temperature of≥10 ℃, the total radiation and precipitation during the growth period.The results showed that: (1) ) Climatic change will make the first day of ≥10 ℃ in Northeast China advance gradually, the initial frost date delays, the days of growing period prolong, the accumulated temperature of ≥10 ℃ increases significantly, and the total radiation increases while the precipitation does not change obviously. 2) Climate change makes the maturity of maize varieties suitable for planting in Northeast China transition from precocious to late-maturing, and the planting limits of different varieties do not (3) Climate change has changed the potential productivity of maize in northeast China significantly, and its high value area will gradually move to the northeast. (4) Appropriate adjustment of seeding period is an effective way to increase the potential of maize climate production way.