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本文利用120°E磁赤道上空电离层TEC1996~2004年的观测数据讨论电离层TEC参量的混沌特性,并探讨利用混沌理论对电离层参量进行预报的可能性.实际计算表明,在指定经纬度的TEC时序数据中存在混沌特性,其关联维数为3.6092,李雅普诺夫指数为0.3369.采用混沌“加权一阶局域法”进行预测较为成功.对预测误差分析表明,预测点在1~144之间误差相对较小,标准差约为7.6438 TECU,相关系数约为0.9172.
In this paper, the chaotic characteristics of ionospheric TEC parameters are discussed by using the observed data of ionospheric TEC over the magnetic equator at 120 ° E, and the possibility of using the chaos theory to predict ionospheric parameters is also discussed. The actual calculation shows that TEC The chaotic characteristics of the time series data are as follows: the correlation dimension is 3.6092, and the Lyapunov index is 0.3369.It is more successful to predict by using the chaotic “weighted first order local method.” The prediction error analysis shows that the prediction points are between 1 and 144 The error is relatively small with a standard deviation of about 7.6438 TECU and a correlation coefficient of about 0.9172.