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对于公司向目标资本结构调整这种现象,不一定说明其存在目标资本结构行为,也可能是均值回归效应造成的。对于这种现象,理论界提出了动态权衡理论和动态融资优序理论来解释,那么我国上市公司支持哪种理论呢?鉴于此,本文以沪深两市2001~2010年A股数据为实际样本,以此为基础产生四组模拟样本,利用动态面板广义矩估计(GMM)法对实际样本和模拟样本的资本结构的动态调整行为进行验证,结果发现:我国上市公司存在目标资本结构行为,其向目标资本结构调整的行为并不是机械均值回归造成的;融资赤字和留存收益对资本结构的影响有更多的暂时性效应;总体而言,我国上市公司支持动态权衡理论。
For the company to adjust the target capital structure this phenomenon does not necessarily indicate its existence of the target capital structure, it may be caused by the mean regression effect. In view of this phenomenon, the theoretical circles put forward the dynamic trade-off theory and the dynamic financing order theory to explain, so what kind of theory does the listed company in our country support? In view of this, this article takes the 2001-2012 A-share data of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets as the actual sample . Based on this, four sets of simulation samples were generated, and the dynamic adjustment behavior of the capital structure of the real sample and the simulated sample was verified by using the GMM method. The result shows that there exists the target capital structure behavior of the listed companies in China, The adjustment to the target capital structure is not caused by the return of mechanical means; the financing deficit and retained earnings have more temporary effects on the capital structure. Generally speaking, the listed companies in our country support the theory of dynamic trade-off.