Simple heuristics and their application in the real world

来源 :第一届决策与脑研究国际研讨会(THE 1stINTERNATIONAL SYMPOSIUM ON DECISION MA | 被引量 : 0次 | 上传用户:clarinet1900
下载到本地 , 更方便阅读
声明 : 本文档内容版权归属内容提供方 , 如果您对本文有版权争议 , 可与客服联系进行内容授权或下架
论文部分内容阅读
  Lael Schooler will introduce the simple heuristics research program that studies decision strategies that can make effective decisions in an uncertain world,with limited time and information.These heuristics will be illustrated with examples that emphasize their real-world applicability.He will start by focusing on fast and frugal trees (FFT),which classify objects into one of two categories through a sequence of tests.He will then discuss two projects carried out in collaboration with Shenghua Luan and Gerd Gigerenzer.The first explores how signal detection theory can help us to better understand the performance of FFT’s.The second project introduces Δ-Inference,a new lexicographic model for paired comparison,which stops cue search when the difference between the cue values of the two options exceeds an aspiration level Δ.In simulated and real task environments,we found that the accuracy of Δ-Inference peaks at a value of Δ that on average is close to zero.Furthermore,despite rarely searching more than one cue,Δ-Inference achieves as high a level of prediction accuracy as linear regression.Both FFT’s and Δ-Inference illustrate that when making inferences in the real world,it can pay to ignore information.
其他文献
  A.Before Spinal cord contusion is characterized by partial damage of the spinal cord,sparing particularly the nerve fibers joining the spinal segments proxi
会议
会议
目的:临床采用横切口、横弧形切口安放锁骨钩钢板治疗锁骨外端骨折或肩锁关节脱位,术后发生锁骨上皮神经损伤而出现临床症状者并不少见。介绍应用纵形皮肤切口显露安放锁骨钩钢
Tinel征是周围神经外科最著名的诊断工具之一,临床应用广泛。Tinel征是指叩击神经损伤(nerve injury,仅指机械力损伤)或神经损害(nerve lesion,包括疾病)的部位或其远侧,而出现其
  Homo sapiens “the wise man”,as the name suggests,is characterized by intelligence and rationality.To better understand human decision rationality,we take